Did the AFI just reveal the films that will be nominated for Best Picture?

The AFI is often one of the best bellwethers for which titles will eventually go on to compete at the Oscars.

By Joe Allen Published December 5, 2024

Rebecca Ferguson in Dune Part 2. — Warner Bros.

The American Film Institute has named its best movies and TV shows for the year, and the movie lineup could be a preview of what movies are heavy favorites to pick up a Best Picture nomination.

The AFI Motion Pictures of the Year were: Anora (Neon), The Brutalist (A24), A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Conclave (Focus Features), Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.), Emilia Pérez (Netflix), Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios), A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Sing Sing (A24), Wicked (Universal Pictures).

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Those 10 titles are all possible Best Picture nominees, and include a mix of blockbusters are independent titles. Typically, the AFI list matches seven or eight of the eventual Best Picture nominees, and that’s usually in large part because it only includes American titles. This year, though, an exception was made for Emilia Pérez, a movie that is primarily in Spanish and is not set in the United States. The most notable titles absent from this list were Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, Pedro Almadovar’s The Room Next Door, raising concern about their futures in the Oscar race.

On the TV side, the AFI named Abbott Elementary (ABC), The Bear (FX), Hacks (HBO/Max), A Man on the Inside (Netflix), Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video), Nobody Wants This (Netflix), The Penguin (HBO/Max), Shōgun (FX), Shrinking (Apple TV+), and True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max) the 10 best shows of the year. The TV list typically has less predictive power than the Oscars, but reflects the year in American television.

While the AFI are just one bellwether for the Oscars, they are often among the most reliable. There’s still plenty of time left in the season, but those 10 movies are looking like consensus choices.

Contributor

Joe Allen is a freelance culture writer based in upstate New York. His work has been published in The Washington Post, The…

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